MIAMI
HEATMIA
34-41 | Road
124
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
56-19 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
CELTICS
0%
HEAT
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
MIA By 1-7 points
7.4%
MIA By 8-14 points
1.9%
BOS By 1-7 points
19.3%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
106.74
MIAMI
Boston
119.24
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Boston
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.5
D
Sim
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ MIA
147 - 129
Feb 6, 2026
MIA @ BOS
96 - 98
Jan 15, 2026
BOS @ MIA
119 - 114
Dec 19, 2025
MIA @ BOS
116 - 129
Apr 2, 2025
MIA @ BOS
124 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.7% more
Boston: 4.4
vs
Miami: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Boston: 84.0%
vs
Miami: 76.0%
Steals (L5)
+49.2% more
Miami: 10.7
vs
Boston: 5.4
Turnovers (L5)
+26.7% more
Miami: 15.7
vs
Boston: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
106.7
124
BOS Score
119.2
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 41.7
27.9 / 46.7
Assists
30.2 / 28.4
24.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.1
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 51.0
44.8 / 51.8
Free Throw %
84.0 / 76.0
81.3 / 88.9
Rebounding
50.0 / 47.7
43.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.4 / 10.7
3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 15.7
13.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIA
BOS
MIA
ML
57%
61-46
48%
46-50
53%
47-41
59%
48-34
ATS
59%
61-43-3
51%
49-47
53%
47-41
59%
48-34
TTL
56%
60-47
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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