Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Mavericks ATL @ DAL

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

36-39  |  Road

118
FINAL
Wed, Apr 2 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

37-39  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
HAWKS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.1
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Dallas)
HawksATL (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

30.5%

Mavericks Cover

69.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -5.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

ATL By 1-7 points

18.4%

ATL By 8-14 points

7.9%

DAL By 1-7 points

27.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

23.1%

AI Model Projected Score
115.71
ATLANTA
120.8
DALLAS
Simulated Score
118
ATLANTA
122
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.1
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 236.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 ATL @ DAL 135 - 120
Mar 10, 2026 DAL @ ATL 112 - 124
Apr 2, 2025 ATL @ DAL 118 - 120
Nov 25, 2024 DAL @ ATL 129 - 119
Apr 4, 2024 ATL @ DAL 95 - 109
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Dallas: 35.2% vs Atlanta: 32.9%
Steals (L5) +29.5% more
Atlanta: 10.4 vs Dallas: 7.3
Turnovers (L5) +27.5% more
Atlanta: 15.4 vs Dallas: 11.2
Blocks (L5) +17.4% more
Atlanta: 4.6 vs Dallas: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 115.7 118
DAL Score 120.8 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 32.9 45.5 / 38.5
Assists 26.3 / 30.2 27.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.6 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 48.9 53.0 / 43.3
Free Throw % 71.7 / 81.3 81.0 / 86.4
Rebounding 42.7 / 43.1 42.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.3 / 10.4 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 15.4 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
ATL
DAL
ATL
ML
62% 63-39
50% 52-52
54% 44-37
55% 48-40
ATS
67% 68-34
53% 55-48-1
54% 44-37
55% 48-40
TTL
59% 60-41-1
53% 55-48-1
100% 81-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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