COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
1-3 | Road
1
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
3-1 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | None-None | 2.13 | -- | 6.2 | 3 |
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.13
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
PHILLIES
0%
ROCKIES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
COL By 1-2 runs
16.5%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.87
COLORADO
Philadelphia
4.81
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
COL @ PHI
0 - 6
May 9, 2026
COL @ PHI
3 - 9
May 8, 2026
COL @ PHI
9 - 7
Apr 5, 2026
PHI @ COL
1 - 4
Apr 4, 2026
PHI @ COL
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.739
▲
OPS
.724
180
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+106.1% more
Philadelphia: 12.5
vs
Colorado: 6.1
Home Runs (L5)
+103.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.8
vs
Colorado: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+65.4% more
Philadelphia: 17.1
vs
Colorado: 10.3
Hits (L5)
+34.1% more
Philadelphia: 9.5
vs
Colorado: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.9
1
PHI Score
4.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.5 / 7.1
12.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
12.5 / 6.1
14.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 10.3
15.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.6
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
COL
PHI
COL
ML
59%
97-67
60%
97-64
49%
80-84
55%
88-73
ATS
65%
107-57
60%
97-64
51%
83-81
52%
83-78
TTL
57%
88-67-9
60%
93-62-6
51%
78-76-9
50%
77-78-6
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