PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
32-43 | Road
127
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
36-38 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
HAWKS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
POR By 1-7 points
15.1%
POR By 8-14 points
5.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
26.1%
ATL By 8-14 points
25.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
112.89
PORTLAND
Atlanta
120.04
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Atlanta
122
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
POR @ ATL
101 - 135
Jan 15, 2026
ATL @ POR
101 - 117
Apr 1, 2025
POR @ ATL
127 - 113
Nov 17, 2024
ATL @ POR
110 - 114
Mar 27, 2024
POR @ ATL
106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+39.8% more
Atlanta: 32.2
vs
Portland: 23.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
Atlanta: 79.0%
vs
Portland: 68.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Atlanta: 51.0%
vs
Portland: 43.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Atlanta: 38.4%
vs
Portland: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
112.9
127
ATL Score
120.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 31.7
21.9 / 31.7
Assists
32.2 / 23.1
26.0 / 30.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.8
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 43.3
44.6 / 45.6
Free Throw %
79.0 / 68.5
85.7 / 74.1
Rebounding
42.2 / 40.2
45.0 / 54.0
Steals
9.6 / 9.2
12.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 13.3
20.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
POR
ATL
POR
ML
50%
52-52
53%
56-49
55%
48-40
55%
49-40
ATS
53%
55-48-1
62%
65-39-1
55%
48-40
55%
49-40
TTL
53%
55-48-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
89-0
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