BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
31-36-6 | Road
5
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
39-28-6 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 4.22 | 0.810 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.22
--
Save %
0.810
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
SENATORS
100%
SABRES
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
OTT By 1 goal
12.1%
OTT By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3.86
BUFFALO
Ottawa
2.86
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Sabres (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
BUF @ OTT
1 - 4
Dec 23, 2025
BUF @ OTT
3 - 2
Oct 15, 2025
OTT @ BUF
4 - 8
Apr 1, 2025
BUF @ OTT
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
OTT @ BUF
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+42.1% more
Buffalo: 5.6
vs
Ottawa: 3.3
Power Play % (L5)
+17.0%
Buffalo: 29.3%
vs
Ottawa: 12.3%
Hits (L5)
+67.1% more
Ottawa: 27.1
vs
Buffalo: 16.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.4% more
Ottawa: 28.5
vs
Buffalo: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.9
5
OTT Score
2.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.5 / 15.2
8.0 / 27.0
Faceoff %
52.0 / 46.2
60.7 / 39.3
Hits
27.1 / 16.2
25.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
1234.0 / 2932.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.5 / 23.7
35.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
3.3 / 5.6
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
BUF
OTT
BUF
ML
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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