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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

3-1  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, Apr 1 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

3-1  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Johnson

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Johnson None-None 12.27 -- 1.0 --
Kyle Leahy None-None 3.38 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
12.27 ERA Ldr 3.38
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
ANGELS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (St. Louis)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

46.3%

Cardinals Cover

53.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.5%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.93
LOS ANGELES
4.3
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Angels (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 STL @ LAA 1 - 0
Jul 21, 2026 STL @ LAA 1 - 5
Jul 20, 2026 STL @ LAA 2 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 LAA @ STL 5 - 12
Apr 1, 2025 LAA @ STL 9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.679
OPS
▲ .691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +128.0% more
St. Louis: 1.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +107.1% more
St. Louis: 17.5 vs Los Angeles: 8.4
Hits (L5) +77.9% more
St. Louis: 10.4 vs Los Angeles: 5.8
Runs per Game (Season) +9.9% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.9 9
STL Score 4.3 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.4 / 5.8 11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 7.3 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.5 / 8.4 16.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
LAA
STL
LAA
ML
53% 85-74
59% 96-66
52% 84-77
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 97-65
53% 85-76
51% 82-80
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 83-74-5
50% 76-75-10
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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