Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Astros SF @ HOU

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

3-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Apr 1 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

2-2  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryan King
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan King

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb None-None 3.00 -- 7.0 6
Bryan King None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
ASTROS
100%
GIANTS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

67.8%

Astros Cover

32.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.2%

HOU By 1-2 runs

14.0%

HOU By 3-4 runs

8.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.55
SAN FRANCISCO
2.7
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Astros (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 HOU @ SF 2 - 1
Aug 11, 2026 HOU @ SF 1 - 4
Aug 10, 2026 HOU @ SF 6 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 SF @ HOU 6 - 3
Apr 1, 2025 SF @ HOU 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.306 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.706 ▲
OPS
.582
178 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.8% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +75.6% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Houston: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +53.1% more
San Francisco: 13.7 vs Houston: 6.4
Hits (L5) +41.8% more
San Francisco: 8.0 vs Houston: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.6 3
HOU Score 2.7 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 4.7 / 8.0 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 8.5 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 6.4 / 13.7 10.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.0 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SF
HOU
SF
ML
50% 81-82
49% 79-81
47% 77-87
53% 85-75
ATS
56% 91-72
62% 100-60
55% 90-74
52% 83-77
TTL
45% 70-84-9
55% 82-68-10
45% 69-86-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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