SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
36-38 | Road
109
INDIANA
PACERSIND
43-31 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
PACERS
0%
KINGS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
SAC By 1-7 points
15.8%
SAC By 8-14 points
6.1%
IND By 1-7 points
26.4%
IND By 8-14 points
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
111.27
SACRAMENTO
Indiana
117.96
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim
Kings (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
IND @ SAC
109 - 114
Dec 8, 2025
SAC @ IND
105 - 116
Mar 31, 2025
SAC @ IND
109 - 111
Dec 22, 2024
IND @ SAC
122 - 95
Feb 2, 2024
SAC @ IND
133 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+41.8% more
Indiana: 32.7
vs
Sacramento: 23.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.6%
Indiana: 40.5%
vs
Sacramento: 33.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Indiana: 82.7%
vs
Sacramento: 78.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Indiana: 51.0%
vs
Sacramento: 48.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
111.3
109
IND Score
118.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.5 / 33.9
34.1 / 44.4
Assists
32.7 / 23.1
28.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.4
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 48.3
46.7 / 46.7
Free Throw %
82.7 / 78.7
100.0 / 64.7
Rebounding
44.3 / 41.6
40.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.1
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 15.4
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
Advantage
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
SAC
IND
SAC
ML
48%
47-50
55%
55-45
54%
45-38
61%
50-32
ATS
59%
57-40
54%
52-45-3
54%
45-38
61%
50-32
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
57-42-1
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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