Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Lakers HOU @ LAL

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

49-26  |  Road

98
FINAL
Mon, Mar 31 • 10:00 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

45-29  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
ROCKETS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

74.8%

Lakers Cover

25.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

26.4%

HOU By 8-14 points

25.0%

LAL By 1-7 points

15.8%

LAL By 8-14 points

6.1%

AI Model Projected Score
120.99
HOUSTON
114.32
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
118
HOUSTON
124
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 235.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 1, 2026 LAL @ HOU 98 - 78
Apr 29, 2026 HOU @ LAL 99 - 93
Apr 26, 2026 LAL @ HOU 96 - 115
Apr 24, 2026 LAL @ HOU 112 - 108
Apr 21, 2026 HOU @ LAL 94 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.7% more
Houston: 10.0 vs Los Angeles: 7.2
Blocks (L5) +16.5% more
Houston: 4.4 vs Los Angeles: 3.7
Rebounding (L5) +14.6% more
Houston: 48.3 vs Los Angeles: 41.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Houston: 42.0% vs Los Angeles: 38.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 121.0 98
LAL Score 114.3 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 42.0 34.8 / 31.3
Assists 27.4 / 27.3 22.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.4 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 49.6 39.3 / 41.6
Free Throw % 84.2 / 74.8 90.0 / 82.4
Rebounding 41.2 / 48.3 45.0 / 51.0
Steals 7.2 / 10.0 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 11.3 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
HOU
LAL
HOU
ML
61% 68-43
61% 69-44
54% 49-42
59% 51-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
62% 70-43
54% 49-42
59% 51-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
51% 58-55
100% 91-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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