HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
48-26 | Road
148
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
35-39 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
SUNS
100%
ROCKETS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
27.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
19.8%
PHX By 1-7 points
21.9%
PHX By 8-14 points
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
118.56
HOUSTON
Phoenix
115.74
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Phoenix
124
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ PHX
119 - 105
Jan 5, 2026
PHX @ HOU
97 - 100
Dec 5, 2025
PHX @ HOU
98 - 117
Nov 24, 2025
HOU @ PHX
114 - 92
Mar 30, 2025
HOU @ PHX
148 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.3% more
Houston: 7.9
vs
Phoenix: 5.9
Rebounding (L5)
+17.4% more
Houston: 49.9
vs
Phoenix: 41.2
Blocks (L5)
+16.0% more
Houston: 4.6
vs
Phoenix: 3.8
Turnovers (L5)
+22.8% more
Phoenix: 14.7
vs
Houston: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
118.6
148
PHX Score
115.7
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.5 / 33.9
31.3 / 58.1
Assists
27.4 / 22.5
25.0 / 37.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.6
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 45.8
48.3 / 57.1
Free Throw %
81.6 / 76.2
88.2 / 72.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 49.9
39.0 / 45.0
Steals
5.9 / 7.9
8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 12.0
19.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
HOU
PHX
HOU
ML
57%
60-45
61%
69-44
51%
45-43
59%
51-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
62%
70-43
51%
45-43
59%
51-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
51%
58-55
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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