OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
39-28-5 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
29-34-11 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Philip Tomasino
#-- | Right Wing@
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Tomasino | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
SENATORS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
19.5%
OTT By 2-3 goals
26.1%
PIT By 1 goal
14.0%
PIT By 2-3 goals
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3.81
OTTAWA
Pittsburgh
3.14
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 26, 2026
PIT @ OTT
4 - 3
Feb 2, 2026
OTT @ PIT
3 - 2
Dec 18, 2025
PIT @ OTT
0 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
OTT @ PIT
0 - 1
Jan 11, 2025
OTT @ PIT
5 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.0% more
Ottawa: 27.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 23.5
Power Play % (L5)
+5.8%
Ottawa: 18.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.8%
Takeaways (L5)
+25.2% more
Pittsburgh: 5.5
vs
Ottawa: 4.4
Hits (L5)
+11.0% more
Pittsburgh: 27.3
vs
Ottawa: 24.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.8
0
PIT Score
3.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.7 / 15.7
12.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
58.3 / 57.3
58.7 / 41.3
Hits
27.3 / 24.6
32.0 / 32.0
Power Play %
12.8 / 18.5
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.5 / 27.3
35.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 4.4
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
OTT
PIT
OTT
ML
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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