Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Magic SAC @ ORL

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

36-37  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Mar 29 • 5:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

35-39  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
KINGS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

52.5%

Magic Cover

47.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

25.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

16.3%

ORL By 1-7 points

24.7%

ORL By 8-14 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
109.42
SACRAMENTO
108.8
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
118
SACRAMENTO
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim Kings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 218.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 SAC @ ORL 117 - 121
Feb 19, 2026 ORL @ SAC 131 - 94
Mar 29, 2025 SAC @ ORL 91 - 121
Feb 5, 2025 ORL @ SAC 130 - 111
Mar 23, 2024 SAC @ ORL 109 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.5% more
Sacramento: 26.1 vs Orlando: 20.0
Steals (L5) +19.2% more
Sacramento: 7.7 vs Orlando: 6.2
Turnovers (L5) +12.2% more
Sacramento: 15.1 vs Orlando: 13.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Sacramento: 38.3% vs Orlando: 28.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 109.4 91
ORL Score 108.8 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 38.3 46.2 / 25.0
Assists 20.0 / 26.1 31.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.7 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 51.5 49.4 / 42.0
Free Throw % 82.0 / 78.1 62.5 / 80.0
Rebounding 45.5 / 41.9 49.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.7 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 15.1 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
ORL Advantage
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
SAC
ORL
SAC
ML
61% 65-42
55% 55-45
56% 51-40
61% 50-32
ATS
64% 68-38-1
54% 52-45-3
56% 51-40
61% 50-32
TTL
57% 61-46
58% 57-42-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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