MIAMI
HEATMIA
32-41 | Road
118
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
23-50 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
76ERS
100%
HEAT
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
25.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.0%
PHI By 1-7 points
24.9%
PHI By 8-14 points
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
107.63
MIAMI
Philadelphia
107.22
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Philadelphia
118
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 214.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHI @ MIA
109 - 119
Feb 26, 2026
MIA @ PHI
117 - 124
Nov 23, 2025
MIA @ PHI
127 - 117
Apr 7, 2025
PHI @ MIA
105 - 117
Mar 29, 2025
MIA @ PHI
118 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.3% more
Miami: 15.5
vs
Philadelphia: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+16.4%
Miami: 49.6%
vs
Philadelphia: 33.2%
Assists (L5)
+12.5% more
Miami: 25.6
vs
Philadelphia: 22.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Miami: 53.1%
vs
Philadelphia: 43.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
107.6
118
PHI Score
107.2
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 49.6
40.6 / 46.5
Assists
22.4 / 25.6
28.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.9 / 3.5
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 53.1
50.0 / 47.3
Free Throw %
79.4 / 79.5
42.9 / 76.9
Rebounding
40.3 / 37.3
37.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.7 / 9.0
7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 15.5
18.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
63%
69-40
48%
46-50
48%
45-48
59%
48-34
ATS
65%
71-38
51%
49-47
48%
45-48
59%
48-34
TTL
55%
60-49
59%
57-39
100%
93-0
100%
82-0
Contextual Game News
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
Colin Cowherd: LeBron James' Arthritis and Sciatica Made 76ers t…