DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
36-38 | Road
120
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
33-40 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
BULLS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1-7 points
26.5%
DAL By 8-14 points
17.5%
CHI By 1-7 points
23.8%
CHI By 8-14 points
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
120.45
DALLAS
Chicago
119.08
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Chicago
112
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Mavericks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
CHI @ DAL
128 - 149
Jan 10, 2026
DAL @ CHI
107 - 125
Mar 29, 2025
DAL @ CHI
120 - 119
Nov 6, 2024
CHI @ DAL
99 - 119
Mar 11, 2024
DAL @ CHI
127 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+15.0% more
Dallas: 14.7
vs
Chicago: 12.5
Steals (L5)
+9.7% more
Dallas: 8.9
vs
Chicago: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Dallas: 76.8%
vs
Chicago: 75.2%
Blocks (L5)
+67.8% more
Chicago: 3.8
vs
Dallas: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
120.5
120
CHI Score
119.1
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.1 / 39.1
42.4 / 30.0
Assists
32.6 / 23.4
31.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.8 / 2.3
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 51.4
47.3 / 46.5
Free Throw %
75.2 / 76.8
79.2 / 81.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 38.8
56.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.1 / 8.9
4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 14.7
19.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
CHI
Advantage
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
DAL
CHI
DAL
ML
56%
54-42
62%
63-39
57%
46-35
54%
44-37
ATS
65%
62-33-1
67%
68-34
57%
46-35
54%
44-37
TTL
58%
56-40
59%
60-41-1
100%
81-0
100%
81-0
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