LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
44-29 | Road
134
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
44-29 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
LAKERS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
LAL By 1-7 points
23.7%
LAL By 8-14 points
13.0%
MEM By 1-7 points
26.5%
MEM By 8-14 points
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
114.41
LOS ANGELES
Memphis
115.86
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
118
LOS ANGELES
Memphis
124
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
MEM @ LAL
114 - 120
Jan 2, 2026
MEM @ LAL
121 - 128
Oct 31, 2025
LAL @ MEM
117 - 112
Mar 29, 2025
LAL @ MEM
134 - 127
Dec 15, 2024
MEM @ LAL
110 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+18.4% more
Memphis: 8.6
vs
Los Angeles: 7.3
Assists (L5)
+12.9% more
Memphis: 29.5
vs
Los Angeles: 26.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.6%
Memphis: 87.6%
vs
Los Angeles: 80.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Memphis: 38.6%
vs
Los Angeles: 35.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
114.4
134
MEM Score
115.9
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 35.9
43.8 / 44.2
Assists
29.5 / 26.1
33.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.0
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 48.7
52.6 / 50.6
Free Throw %
87.6 / 80.0
72.2 / 92.6
Rebounding
42.8 / 40.8
41.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.6 / 7.3
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 13.7
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
LAL
MEM
LAL
ML
57%
59-44
61%
68-43
50%
41-41
54%
49-42
ATS
63%
65-38
61%
67-43-1
50%
41-41
54%
49-42
TTL
70%
71-31-1
61%
66-43-2
100%
82-0
100%
91-0
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