Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Raptors CHA @ TOR

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

18-54  |  Road

97
FINAL
Fri, Mar 28 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

26-47  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
HORNETS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Toronto)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

31.0%

Raptors Cover

69.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

CHA By 1-7 points

18.6%

CHA By 8-14 points

8.1%

TOR By 1-7 points

27.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
105.76
CHARLOTTE
110.72
TORONTO
Simulated Score
118
CHARLOTTE
124
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 216.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 7, 2026 TOR @ CHA 97 - 96
Dec 5, 2025 CHA @ TOR 111 - 86
Nov 29, 2025 TOR @ CHA 111 - 118
Nov 17, 2025 CHA @ TOR 108 - 110
Apr 9, 2025 CHA @ TOR 96 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +56.9% more
Toronto: 7.5 vs Charlotte: 4.8
Rebounding (L5) +40.6% more
Toronto: 55.0 vs Charlotte: 39.1
Assists (L5) +12.8% more
Toronto: 29.8 vs Charlotte: 26.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.4%
Charlotte: 39.2% vs Toronto: 30.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 105.8 97
TOR Score 110.7 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 39.2 31.8 / 29.0
Assists 29.8 / 26.4 28.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.9 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 45.2 44.2 / 40.6
Free Throw % 78.5 / 85.4 66.7 / 66.7
Rebounding 55.0 / 39.1 45.0 / 56.0
Steals 7.5 / 4.8 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 14.7 6.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHA
TOR
CHA
ML
55% 57-47
61% 60-39
55% 48-39
48% 40-44
ATS
61% 62-40-2
60% 59-40
55% 48-39
48% 40-44
TTL
60% 62-42
58% 57-42
100% 87-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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