Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Diamondbacks CHC @ ARI

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

0-0  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Mar 28 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

0-0  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Carson Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Carson Kelly

#15 | Catcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carson Kelly None-None -- -- -- --
Ryan Thompson None-None 0.00 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
CUBS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

56.5%

Diamondbacks Cover

43.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

15.4%

ARI By 1-2 runs

17.1%

ARI By 3-4 runs

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.61
CHICAGO
4.96
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Cubs (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 CHC @ ARI 0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026 CHC @ ARI 4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026 CHC @ ARI 7 - 0
May 3, 2026 ARI @ CHC 4 - 8
May 2, 2026 ARI @ CHC 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Arizona ARI
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.374
OPS
▲ .720
0
Home Runs
▲ 166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +26.2% more
Chicago: 4.6 vs Arizona: 3.4
Home Runs (Season) +16600.0% more
Arizona: 166.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +406.0% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +87.0% more
Arizona: 1.3 vs Chicago: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.6 1
ARI Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.2 / 8.1 14.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 6.4 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.7 / 11.3 26.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.4 / 4.6 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CHC
ARI
CHC
ML
54% 87-74
58% 93-68
54% 86-74
51% 82-79
ATS
57% 91-70
61% 97-63-1
56% 89-71
47% 75-85-1
TTL
52% 80-73-8
52% 81-74-6
49% 73-77-9
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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