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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

35-38  |  Road

101
FINAL
Thu, Mar 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
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ORLANDO

MAGICORL

35-38  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
MAVERICKS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

68.3%

Magic Cover

31.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

27.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

22.7%

ORL By 1-7 points

18.9%

ORL By 8-14 points

8.3%

AI Model Projected Score
115.58
DALLAS
110.81
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
118
DALLAS
105
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 ORL @ DAL 138 - 127
Mar 5, 2026 DAL @ ORL 114 - 115
Mar 27, 2025 DAL @ ORL 101 - 92
Nov 3, 2024 ORL @ DAL 85 - 108
Jan 29, 2024 ORL @ DAL 129 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.2% more
Dallas: 14.5 vs Orlando: 11.4
Steals (L5) +18.5% more
Dallas: 8.4 vs Orlando: 6.8
Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Dallas: 53.3% vs Orlando: 46.4%
Blocks (L5) +63.1% more
Orlando: 4.7 vs Dallas: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 115.6 101
ORL Score 110.8 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 33.7 16.7 / 50.0
Assists 22.9 / 24.6 14.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.7 / 2.9 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 53.3 42.5 / 47.4
Free Throw % 83.4 / 78.9 79.2 / 72.7
Rebounding 46.2 / 38.3 44.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.4 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 14.5 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
ORL Advantage
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
DAL
ORL
DAL
ML
61% 65-42
62% 63-39
56% 51-40
54% 44-37
ATS
64% 68-38-1
67% 68-34
56% 51-40
54% 44-37
TTL
57% 61-46
59% 60-41-1
100% 91-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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