ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
35-37 | Road
112
MIAMI
HEATMIA
31-41 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
HEAT
0%
HAWKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ATL By 1-7 points
21.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
10.3%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
20.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
111.17
ATLANTA
Miami
114.42
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Miami
122
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
ATL @ MIA
117 - 143
Feb 20, 2026
MIA @ ATL
128 - 97
Feb 3, 2026
ATL @ MIA
127 - 115
Dec 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
126 - 111
Oct 13, 2025
MIA @ ATL
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.8% more
Miami: 4.7
vs
Atlanta: 4.0
Turnovers (L5)
+9.7% more
Miami: 16.3
vs
Atlanta: 14.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
Miami: 47.1%
vs
Atlanta: 37.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Miami: 52.8%
vs
Atlanta: 49.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
111.2
112
MIA Score
114.4
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
47.1 / 37.9
54.5 / 43.9
Assists
25.4 / 32.0
26.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.0
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.8 / 49.1
53.7 / 51.8
Free Throw %
79.3 / 81.4
80.0 / 72.7
Rebounding
37.4 / 42.4
37.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.5 / 9.0
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 14.9
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48%
46-50
50%
52-52
59%
48-34
55%
48-40
ATS
51%
49-47
53%
55-48-1
59%
48-34
55%
48-40
TTL
59%
57-39
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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