PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
32-41 | Road
107
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
35-37 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
KINGS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
POR By 1-7 points
21.1%
POR By 8-14 points
10.2%
SAC By 1-7 points
27.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
20.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
108.55
PORTLAND
Sacramento
111.89
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Sacramento
122
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
SAC @ POR
110 - 122
Jan 18, 2026
POR @ SAC
117 - 110
Dec 20, 2025
POR @ SAC
98 - 93
Dec 18, 2025
SAC @ POR
133 - 134
Oct 10, 2025
SAC @ POR
123 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Sacramento: 76.4%
vs
Portland: 71.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Sacramento: 39.0%
vs
Portland: 36.6%
Rebounding (L5)
+11.7% more
Portland: 45.2
vs
Sacramento: 39.9
Steals (L5)
+10.5% more
Portland: 8.5
vs
Sacramento: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
108.6
107
SAC Score
111.9
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.0 / 36.6
37.0 / 32.0
Assists
27.1 / 26.1
24.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 44.8
64.9 / 39.8
Free Throw %
76.4 / 71.0
81.5 / 80.8
Rebounding
39.9 / 45.2
46.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.6 / 8.5
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 13.4
21.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
POR
SAC
POR
ML
55%
55-45
53%
56-49
61%
50-32
55%
49-40
ATS
54%
52-45-3
62%
65-39-1
61%
50-32
55%
49-40
TTL
58%
57-42-1
56%
58-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
89-0
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