PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
29-33-11 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
29-35-6 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
SABRES
0%
PENGUINS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
PIT By 1 goal
14.6%
PIT By 2-3 goals
12.9%
BUF By 1 goal
19.3%
BUF By 2-3 goals
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.49
PITTSBURGH
Buffalo
3.06
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
BUF @ PIT
5 - 1
Feb 5, 2026
PIT @ BUF
5 - 2
Nov 26, 2025
BUF @ PIT
2 - 4
Oct 3, 2025
BUF @ PIT
4 - 5
Oct 1, 2025
PIT @ BUF
5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+27.0% more
Pittsburgh: 4.3
vs
Buffalo: 3.1
Hits (L5)
+25.2% more
Pittsburgh: 26.9
vs
Buffalo: 20.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+19.1% more
Pittsburgh: 18.0
vs
Buffalo: 14.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+16.9%
Pittsburgh: 58.6%
vs
Buffalo: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.5
3
BUF Score
3.1
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.6 / 18.0
14.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
41.7 / 58.6
42.2 / 57.8
Hits
20.2 / 26.9
15.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
1645.0 / 1912.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.4 / 22.7
30.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 4.3
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
PIT
BUF
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
The Unexpected Cornerback the Steelers Regret Losing
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…