WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
47-15-9 | Road
2
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
40-27-5 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Filip Gustavsson
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.11 | 0.850 | -- |
| Filip Gustavsson | None-None | 2.00 | 0.933 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.11
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.850
Save %
Ldr 0.933
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
WILD
0%
CAPITALS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MIN -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
WSH By 1 goal
14.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
12.9%
MIN By 1 goal
19.3%
MIN By 2-3 goals
25.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.34
WASHINGTON
Minnesota
2.91
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Minnesota
2
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wild
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wild (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 16, 2025
WSH @ MIN
0 - 5
Oct 17, 2025
MIN @ WSH
1 - 5
Mar 27, 2025
WSH @ MIN
2 - 4
Jan 2, 2025
MIN @ WSH
4 - 3
Jan 23, 2024
WSH @ MIN
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+27.1% more
Minnesota: 22.3
vs
Washington: 17.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+24.9% more
Minnesota: 17.1
vs
Washington: 13.7
Power Play % (L5)
+6.7%
Minnesota: 7.3%
vs
Washington: 0.6%
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.0%
Washington: 50.5%
vs
Minnesota: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.3
2
MIN Score
2.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.1 / 13.7
22.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
47.5 / 50.5
41.1 / 58.9
Hits
22.3 / 17.5
25.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
7.3 / 0.6
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.6 / 27.5
21.0 / 30.0
Takeaways
6.1 / 6.2
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
WSH
MIN
WSH
ML
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
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