DALLAS
STARSDAL
46-21-4 | Road
5
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
34-25-11 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 2.00 | 0.958 | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 4.07 | 0.778 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
4.07
0.958 Ldr
Save %
0.778
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
FLAMES
100%
STARS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
17.8%
DAL By 2-3 goals
19.4%
CGY By 1 goal
17.2%
CGY By 2-3 goals
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
2.94
DALLAS
Calgary
2.87
CALGARY
Simulated Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Calgary
2
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stars (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Stars (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
CGY @ DAL
3 - 4
Mar 3, 2026
DAL @ CGY
6 - 1
Nov 22, 2025
DAL @ CGY
2 - 3
Mar 27, 2025
DAL @ CGY
5 - 2
Mar 6, 2025
CGY @ DAL
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.3% more
Dallas: 15.3
vs
Calgary: 13.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.9%
Dallas: 49.6%
vs
Calgary: 44.6%
Power Play % (L5)
+3.7%
Dallas: 24.9%
vs
Calgary: 21.2%
Hits (L5)
+65.5% more
Calgary: 24.8
vs
Dallas: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
2.9
5
CGY Score
2.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.0 / 15.3
18.0 / 32.0
Faceoff %
44.6 / 49.6
42.4 / 57.6
Hits
24.8 / 15.0
26.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
21.2 / 24.9
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.7 / 24.7
48.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 5.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
DAL
CGY
DAL
ML
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
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