Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Pacers LAL @ IND

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

43-28  |  Road

120
FINAL
Wed, Mar 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

42-29  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
LAKERS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Indiana)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

37.2%

Pacers Cover

62.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

LAL By 1-7 points

21.2%

LAL By 8-14 points

10.3%

IND By 1-7 points

27.3%

IND By 8-14 points

20.5%

AI Model Projected Score
111.48
LOS ANGELES
114.74
INDIANA
Simulated Score
118
LOS ANGELES
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim Lakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 LAL @ IND 137 - 130
Mar 6, 2026 IND @ LAL 117 - 128
Mar 26, 2025 LAL @ IND 120 - 119
Feb 8, 2025 IND @ LAL 117 - 124
Mar 29, 2024 LAL @ IND 90 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +154.3% more
Indiana: 5.6 vs Los Angeles: 2.2
Assists (L5) +22.3% more
Indiana: 28.4 vs Los Angeles: 23.3
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
Indiana: 87.7% vs Los Angeles: 73.7%
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
Indiana: 45.5 vs Los Angeles: 40.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 111.5 120
IND Score 114.7 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 36.5 41.7 / 44.7
Assists 28.4 / 23.3 31.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.6 / 2.2 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 46.4 50.6 / 51.9
Free Throw % 87.7 / 73.7 84.2 / 87.5
Rebounding 45.5 / 40.4 36.0 / 43.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.9 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 15.1 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
LAL
IND
LAL
ML
48% 47-50
61% 68-43
54% 45-38
54% 49-42
ATS
59% 57-40
61% 67-43-1
54% 45-38
54% 49-42
TTL
54% 52-45
61% 66-43-2
100% 83-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 1 hour, 18 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 7 hours, 16 minutes ago
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
kcci 19 hours, 35 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Primed for MVP-Caliber Season with Lakers After Offs…
nypost 1 day, 1 hour ago
Anonymous NBA Scout Shuts Down JJ Redick's Lakers Title Hopes wi…
bleacherreport 1 day, 7 hours ago