BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
53-19 | Road
132
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
35-37 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
SUNS
100%
CELTICS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
27.2%
BOS By 8-14 points
20.0%
PHX By 1-7 points
21.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
10.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
119.93
BOSTON
Phoenix
117.02
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Boston
118
BOSTON
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Celtics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.9
D
Sim
Celtics (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 16, 2026
PHX @ BOS
112 - 120
Feb 24, 2026
BOS @ PHX
97 - 81
Apr 4, 2025
PHX @ BOS
103 - 123
Mar 26, 2025
BOS @ PHX
132 - 102
Mar 14, 2024
PHX @ BOS
112 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.9% more
Boston: 8.3
vs
Phoenix: 5.3
Blocks (L5)
+16.7% more
Boston: 4.9
vs
Phoenix: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+35.9% more
Phoenix: 14.2
vs
Boston: 10.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.0%
Phoenix: 91.2%
vs
Boston: 73.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
119.9
132
PHX Score
117.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.1 / 38.1
31.7 / 42.3
Assists
29.7 / 27.6
22.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.9
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 47.9
41.4 / 50.6
Free Throw %
91.2 / 73.2
81.0 / 90.9
Rebounding
48.2 / 43.5
38.0 / 48.0
Steals
5.3 / 8.3
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 10.4
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
BOS
PHX
BOS
ML
57%
60-45
57%
61-46
51%
45-43
53%
47-41
ATS
58%
59-43-3
59%
61-43-3
51%
45-43
53%
47-41
TTL
59%
61-42-2
56%
60-47
100%
88-0
100%
88-0
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