DALLAS
STARSDAL
45-21-4 | Road
4
EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
41-24-5 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Walman
#96 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 3.00 | 0.932 | -- |
| Jake Walman | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00
GAA
--
0.932
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
OILERS
0%
STARS
--
OILERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
EDMONTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Edmonton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around EDM -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EDM)
DAL By 1 goal
9.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
5.9%
EDM By 1 goal
19.1%
EDM By 2-3 goals
34.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
2.32
DALLAS
Edmonton
3.84
EDMONTON
Simulated Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Edmonton
4
EDMONTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Oilers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Oilers
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Oilers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.5
D
Sim
Oilers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
EDM @ DAL
2 - 7
Nov 25, 2025
DAL @ EDM
8 - 3
Nov 4, 2025
EDM @ DAL
3 - 4
May 29, 2025
EDM @ DAL
6 - 3
May 27, 2025
DAL @ EDM
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+20.8% more
Edmonton: 15.7
vs
Dallas: 13.0
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.2% more
Edmonton: 30.1
vs
Dallas: 25.1
Takeaways (L5)
+20.2% more
Edmonton: 4.5
vs
Dallas: 3.7
Hits (L5)
+12.9% more
Dallas: 18.0
vs
Edmonton: 15.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
2.3
4
EDM Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.7 / 13.0
12.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
50.4 / 50.1
51.6 / 48.4
Hits
15.7 / 18.0
22.0 / 9.0
Power Play %
18.5 / 20.7
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
30.1 / 25.1
44.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 3.7
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EDM
DAL
EDM
DAL
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
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