CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
0-0 | Road
10
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
0-0 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Gallen
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Zac Gallen | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 4.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
9.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
100%
DIAMONDBACKS
0%
CUBS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.8%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.9%
ARI By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.96
CHICAGO
Arizona
5.29
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Cubs (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CHC @ ARI
0 - 2
Aug 25, 2026
CHC @ ARI
4 - 5
Aug 24, 2026
CHC @ ARI
7 - 0
May 3, 2026
ARI @ CHC
4 - 8
May 2, 2026
ARI @ CHC
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.374
OPS
▲
.720
0
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16600.0% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+406.0% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+131.0% more
Arizona: 1.5
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+102.3% more
Arizona: 16.1
vs
Chicago: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.0
10
ARI Score
5.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 6.1
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 7.6
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 8.0
15.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.1 / 5.4
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CHC
ARI
CHC
ML
54%
87-74
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
51%
82-79
ATS
57%
91-70
61%
97-63-1
56%
89-71
47%
75-85-1
TTL
52%
80-73-8
52%
81-74-6
49%
73-77-9
46%
72-83-6
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