ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
35-36 | Road
114
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
46-26 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
ROCKETS
100%
HAWKS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
18.5%
HOU By 1-7 points
23.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
121.24
ATLANTA
Houston
119.25
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Houston
112
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 240.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
95 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
HOU @ ATL
104 - 86
Oct 16, 2025
HOU @ ATL
133 - 115
Oct 6, 2025
ATL @ HOU
113 - 122
Mar 25, 2025
ATL @ HOU
114 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+29.6% more
Atlanta: 32.0
vs
Houston: 22.5
Turnovers (L5)
+19.8% more
Atlanta: 15.3
vs
Houston: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.4%
Atlanta: 78.8%
vs
Houston: 67.4%
Steals (L5)
+9.4% more
Atlanta: 9.5
vs
Houston: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
121.2
114
HOU Score
119.3
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 41.5
28.2 / 30.6
Assists
22.5 / 32.0
17.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.5
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 52.7
45.2 / 41.7
Free Throw %
67.4 / 78.8
89.7 / 86.7
Rebounding
48.5 / 42.6
51.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.5
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 15.3
16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATL
HOU
ATL
ML
61%
69-44
50%
52-52
59%
51-35
55%
48-40
ATS
62%
70-43
53%
55-48-1
59%
51-35
55%
48-40
TTL
51%
58-55
53%
55-48-1
100%
86-0
100%
88-0
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