OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
37-27-5 | Road
2
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
28-35-6 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
SABRES
0%
SENATORS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
OTT By 1 goal
14.4%
OTT By 2-3 goals
12.7%
BUF By 1 goal
19.4%
BUF By 2-3 goals
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
2.88
OTTAWA
Buffalo
3.48
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
BUF @ OTT
1 - 4
Dec 23, 2025
BUF @ OTT
3 - 2
Oct 15, 2025
OTT @ BUF
4 - 8
Apr 1, 2025
BUF @ OTT
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
OTT @ BUF
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+28.9% more
Ottawa: 4.5
vs
Buffalo: 3.2
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.3% more
Ottawa: 16.5
vs
Buffalo: 12.8
Power Play % (L5)
+12.8%
Ottawa: 37.5%
vs
Buffalo: 24.7%
Hits (L5)
+8.7% more
Ottawa: 24.3
vs
Buffalo: 22.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
2.9
2
BUF Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.8 / 16.5
18.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
48.0 / 48.7
29.1 / 70.9
Hits
22.2 / 24.3
16.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
24.7 / 37.5
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
23.1 / 21.8
24.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
3.2 / 4.5
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
OTT
BUF
OTT
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
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