Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Nets DAL @ BKN

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

34-37  |  Road

120
FINAL
Mon, Mar 24 • 7:30 PM ET
Barclays Center
View Odds Details →

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

23-48  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
NETS
100%
MAVERICKS --
NETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 NetsBKN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

60.4%

Nets Cover

39.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

27.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

19.6%

BKN By 1-7 points

22.1%

BKN By 8-14 points

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
112.15
DALLAS
109.5
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
118
DALLAS
115
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 DAL @ BKN 123 - 114
Jan 12, 2026 BKN @ DAL 105 - 113
Dec 12, 2025 BKN @ DAL 111 - 119
Mar 31, 2025 BKN @ DAL 113 - 109
Mar 24, 2025 DAL @ BKN 120 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.6% more
Dallas: 3.8 vs Brooklyn: 3.0
Turnovers (L5) +9.6% more
Dallas: 15.1 vs Brooklyn: 13.7
Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
Dallas: 51.5% vs Brooklyn: 42.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +9.4%
Dallas: 77.1% vs Brooklyn: 67.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 112.2 120
BKN Score 109.5 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 36.0 33.3 / 32.3
Assists 23.4 / 24.1 30.0 / 34.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.8 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 51.5 51.3 / 56.3
Free Throw % 67.7 / 77.1 71.4 / 75.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 40.8 37.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.8 / 7.1 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 15.1 19.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
BKN Advantage
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
DAL
BKN
DAL
ML
53% 50-45
62% 63-39
59% 48-34
54% 44-37
ATS
52% 48-44-3
67% 68-34
59% 48-34
54% 44-37
TTL
57% 54-41
59% 60-41-1
100% 82-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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