Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bulls @ Nuggets CHI @ DEN

CHICAGO

BULLSCHI

31-40  |  Road

129
FINAL
Mon, Mar 24 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

45-27  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
BULLS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Denver)
BullsCHI (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

38.0%

Nuggets Cover

62.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

CHI By 1-7 points

21.5%

CHI By 8-14 points

10.6%

DEN By 1-7 points

27.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

20.2%

AI Model Projected Score
117.62
CHICAGO
120.68
DENVER
Simulated Score
112
CHICAGO
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 238.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 DEN @ CHI 136 - 120
Nov 17, 2025 CHI @ DEN 130 - 127
Oct 14, 2025 CHI @ DEN 117 - 124
Mar 24, 2025 CHI @ DEN 129 - 119
Jan 27, 2025 DEN @ CHI 121 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +29.7% more
Denver: 15.3 vs Chicago: 11.8
Steals (L5) +28.4% more
Chicago: 11.1 vs Denver: 8.0
Assists (L5) +15.7% more
Chicago: 33.1 vs Denver: 27.9
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Chicago: 79.3% vs Denver: 74.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 117.6 129
DEN Score 120.7 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 40.5 30.6 / 43.6
Assists 27.9 / 33.1 34.0 / 31.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.6 9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 52.6 47.4 / 49.5
Free Throw % 74.8 / 79.3 66.7 / 84.6
Rebounding 41.4 / 42.5 52.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.0 / 11.1 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 11.8 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0 (37.8%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0 (47.6%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7% Total +/-: +0.5
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CHI
DEN
CHI
ML
54% 57-48
56% 54-42
55% 47-39
57% 46-35
ATS
63% 65-38-2
65% 62-33-1
55% 47-39
57% 46-35
TTL
54% 56-48-1
58% 56-40
100% 86-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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