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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

51-19  |  Road

129
FINAL
Sun, Mar 23 • 6:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

32-39  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
CELTICS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.9 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

81.2%

Trail Blazers Cover

18.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -8.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

24.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

26.8%

POR By 1-7 points

12.4%

POR By 8-14 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
120.18
BOSTON
111.33
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
118
BOSTON
109
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.9
D
Sim Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 26, 2026 POR @ BOS 94 - 102
Dec 28, 2025 BOS @ POR 108 - 114
Mar 23, 2025 BOS @ POR 129 - 116
Mar 5, 2025 POR @ BOS 118 - 128
Apr 7, 2024 POR @ BOS 107 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.4%
Boston: 84.0% vs Portland: 77.6%
Turnovers (L5) +45.3% more
Portland: 16.7 vs Boston: 11.5
Rebounding (L5) +8.6% more
Portland: 48.9 vs Boston: 45.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Portland: 37.6% vs Boston: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 120.2 129
POR Score 111.3 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 34.3 40.4 / 46.0
Assists 25.8 / 25.6 24.0 / 31.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.1 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 46.3 48.9 / 54.5
Free Throw % 77.6 / 84.0 68.8 / 71.4
Rebounding 48.9 / 45.0 38.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.3 / 8.9 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 16.7 / 11.5 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
BOS
POR
BOS
ML
53% 56-49
57% 61-46
55% 49-40
53% 47-41
ATS
62% 65-39-1
59% 61-43-3
55% 49-40
53% 47-41
TTL
56% 58-46-1
56% 60-47
100% 89-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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