CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
18-52 | Road
105
MIAMI
HEATMIA
29-41 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
HEAT
0%
HORNETS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
208.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -5.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CHA By 1-7 points
18.4%
CHA By 8-14 points
7.9%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
23.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
101.6
CHARLOTTE
Miami
106.68
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.1
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 208.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+54.5% more
Miami: 8.1
vs
Charlotte: 5.2
Turnovers (L5)
+15.1% more
Miami: 17.2
vs
Charlotte: 14.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Miami: 48.3%
vs
Charlotte: 46.6%
Assists (L5)
+13.4% more
Charlotte: 27.9
vs
Miami: 24.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
101.6
105
MIA Score
106.7
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 40.6
41.4 / 33.3
Assists
24.2 / 27.9
27.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.6
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 46.6
57.3 / 47.1
Free Throw %
82.2 / 88.9
80.0 / 92.3
Rebounding
36.6 / 39.5
32.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.1 / 5.2
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
17.2 / 14.9
12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CHA
MIA
CHA
ML
48%
46-50
61%
60-39
59%
48-34
48%
40-44
ATS
51%
49-47
60%
59-40
59%
48-34
48%
40-44
TTL
59%
57-39
58%
57-42
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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