DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
44-27 | Road
116
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
46-25 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
NUGGETS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -9.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DEN By 1-7 points
10.9%
DEN By 8-14 points
3.4%
HOU By 1-7 points
23.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
111.09
DENVER
Houston
120.97
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Denver
121
DENVER
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.9
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
HOU @ DEN
93 - 129
Dec 20, 2025
HOU @ DEN
115 - 101
Dec 15, 2025
HOU @ DEN
125 - 128
Nov 21, 2025
DEN @ HOU
112 - 109
Apr 13, 2025
DEN @ HOU
126 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+23.6% more
Houston: 50.2
vs
Denver: 40.6
Steals (L5)
+15.0% more
Houston: 10.9
vs
Denver: 9.5
Blocks (L5)
+9.5% more
Houston: 4.7
vs
Denver: 4.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Houston: 40.8%
vs
Denver: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
111.1
116
HOU Score
121.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 35.4
32.4 / 47.6
Assists
21.3 / 27.8
25.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.3
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 48.8
43.8 / 50.6
Free Throw %
68.7 / 77.7
64.7 / 69.2
Rebounding
50.2 / 40.6
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
10.9 / 9.5
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 18.5
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DEN
HOU
DEN
ML
61%
69-44
54%
57-48
59%
51-35
55%
47-39
ATS
62%
70-43
63%
65-38-2
59%
51-35
55%
47-39
TTL
51%
58-55
54%
56-48-1
100%
86-0
100%
86-0
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…