BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
27-35-6 | Road
5
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
48-18-4 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Dylan Samberg
#54 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dylan Samberg | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
JETS
0%
SABRES
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Winnipeg)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)
BUF By 1 goal
11.2%
BUF By 2-3 goals
8.2%
WPG By 1 goal
19.7%
WPG By 2-3 goals
31.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2.14
BUFFALO
Winnipeg
3.3
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Winnipeg
2
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jets (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim
Sabres (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 5, 2025
BUF @ WPG
1 - 4
Dec 1, 2025
WPG @ BUF
1 - 5
Mar 23, 2025
BUF @ WPG
5 - 3
Dec 5, 2024
WPG @ BUF
3 - 2
Mar 3, 2024
WPG @ BUF
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.4% more
Winnipeg: 15.6
vs
Buffalo: 12.8
Hits (L5)
+13.8% more
Winnipeg: 26.6
vs
Buffalo: 23.3
Takeaways (L5)
+8.3% more
Winnipeg: 4.1
vs
Buffalo: 3.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.9%
Winnipeg: 51.8%
vs
Buffalo: 48.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.1
5
WPG Score
3.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.6 / 12.8
7.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
51.8 / 48.9
53.8 / 46.2
Hits
26.6 / 23.3
24.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
6.0 / 20.4
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
22.8 / 26.1
36.0 / 17.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 3.8
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
BUF
WPG
BUF
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
100%
3-0
TTL
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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