PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
29-32-10 | Road
3
FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
42-25-3 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
PENGUINS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
PIT By 1 goal
7.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
4.7%
FLA By 1 goal
18.4%
FLA By 2-3 goals
36.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.01
PITTSBURGH
Florida
3.78
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Florida
2
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.8
D
Sim
Penguins (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
FLA @ PIT
2 - 5
Apr 4, 2026
FLA @ PIT
4 - 9
Oct 23, 2025
PIT @ FLA
5 - 3
Mar 23, 2025
PIT @ FLA
3 - 4
Jan 3, 2025
PIT @ FLA
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+56.1% more
Florida: 34.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 22.4
Power Play % (L5)
+16.2%
Florida: 25.9%
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.7%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.4% more
Florida: 30.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 26.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+33.2% more
Pittsburgh: 19.5
vs
Florida: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.0
3
FLA Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.0 / 19.5
9.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
52.5 / 53.5
29.8 / 70.2
Hits
34.9 / 22.4
31.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
25.9 / 9.7
50.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal
30.1 / 26.3
31.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
5.4 / 5.6
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
PIT
FLA
PIT
ML
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
ATS
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
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