Home / NHL Projections NHL / Flames @ Islanders CGY @ NYI

CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

32-25-11  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Mar 22 • 4:00 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

32-28-8  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Maxim Tsyplakov
GOALTENDER

Maxim Tsyplakov

#72 | Right Wing
@
Marcus Hogberg
GOALTENDER

Marcus Hogberg

#50 | G
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Maxim Tsyplakov None-None -- -- --
Marcus Hogberg None-None 3.76 0.886 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 3.76
-- Save % 0.886
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
📊
ISLANDERS
100%
FLAMES --
ISLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Calgary)
FlamesCGY (-3.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

63.7%

Islanders Cover

36.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around CGY -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)

CGY By 1 goal

19.5%

CGY By 2-3 goals

26.4%

NYI By 1 goal

13.9%

NYI By 2-3 goals

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2.95
CALGARY
2.25
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
CALGARY
2
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flames Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flames Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flames (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim Flames (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 CGY @ NYI 2 - 3
Jan 17, 2026 NYI @ CGY 2 - 4
Mar 22, 2025 CGY @ NYI 4 - 3
Nov 19, 2024 NYI @ CGY 1 - 2
Feb 10, 2024 CGY @ NYI 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +24.6% more
Calgary: 5.9 vs New York: 4.4
Hits (L5) +22.1% more
Calgary: 26.1 vs New York: 20.4
Blocked Shots (L5) +35.6% more
New York: 18.6 vs Calgary: 13.7
Faceoff % (L5) +6.2%
New York: 49.4% vs Calgary: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CGY Score 3.0 4
NYI Score 2.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 18.6 / 13.7 16.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 49.4 / 43.2 65.6 / 34.4
Hits 20.4 / 26.1 19.0 / 19.0
Power Play % 2491.0 / 2264.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.4 / 28.3 29.0 / 35.0
Takeaways 4.4 / 5.9 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
24%MONEY76%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
CGY
NYI
CGY
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 2-0-1
67% 2-1
100% 2-0-1
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 6 hours, 7 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 12 hours, 6 minutes ago
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Flames Promote Aydar Suniev and Jonathan Castagna to Fill Roster…
yardbarker 1 day, 6 hours ago
Rangers' Shesterkin and Fox Shine in ESPN Top 100 Despite Rankin…
si 1 day, 12 hours ago