FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
42-24-3 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
46-15-8 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Lars Eller
#20 | Center@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 3.02 | 0.917 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.02
--
Save %
0.917
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
PANTHERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
FLA By 1 goal
13.7%
FLA By 2-3 goals
11.5%
WSH By 1 goal
19.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
26.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
2.61
FLORIDA
Washington
3.34
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Panthers (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
FLA @ WSH
5 - 2
Dec 29, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 5
Nov 13, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 6
Mar 22, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Feb 4, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+18.1% more
Washington: 4.2
vs
Florida: 3.6
Hits (L5)
+49.2% more
Florida: 30.8
vs
Washington: 15.7
Power Play % (L5)
+37.4%
Florida: 38.8%
vs
Washington: 1.4%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.8% more
Florida: 27.2
vs
Washington: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
2.6
3
WSH Score
3.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.8 / 13.5
20.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
48.7 / 53.3
49.2 / 50.8
Hits
15.7 / 30.8
22.0 / 43.0
Power Play %
137.0 / 3879.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.7 / 27.2
33.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 3.6
9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
FLA
WSH
FLA
ML
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
ATS
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
Contextual Game News
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