Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Heat HOU @ MIA

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

45-25  |  Road

102
FINAL
Fri, Mar 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

29-40  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
HEAT
0%
ROCKETS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Miami)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

43.3%

Heat Cover

56.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

HOU By 1-7 points

23.4%

HOU By 8-14 points

12.6%

MIA By 1-7 points

26.7%

MIA By 8-14 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
107.64
HOUSTON
109.32
MIAMI
Simulated Score
118
HOUSTON
124
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Heat Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim Heat (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 MIA @ HOU 122 - 123
Feb 28, 2026 HOU @ MIA 105 - 115
Mar 21, 2025 HOU @ MIA 102 - 98
Dec 29, 2024 MIA @ HOU 104 - 100
Apr 5, 2024 MIA @ HOU 119 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +27.6% more
Houston: 52.4 vs Miami: 37.9
Blocks (L5) +8.8% more
Houston: 5.1 vs Miami: 4.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Houston: 36.1% vs Miami: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 107.6 102
MIA Score 109.3 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 36.1 41.7 / 50.0
Assists 23.7 / 24.9 25.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.6 / 5.1 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 47.1 52.1 / 46.4
Free Throw % 80.4 / 79.3 85.7 / 47.6
Rebounding 37.9 / 52.4 34.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.1 / 7.8 8.0 / 17.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 14.6 21.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
HOU
MIA
HOU
ML
48% 46-50
61% 69-44
59% 48-34
59% 51-35
ATS
51% 49-47
62% 70-43
59% 48-34
59% 51-35
TTL
59% 57-39
51% 58-55
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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