Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pistons @ Mavericks DET @ DAL

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

39-31  |  Road

117
FINAL
Fri, Mar 21 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

33-37  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
PISTONS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Detroit)
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

64.1%

Mavericks Cover

35.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-7 points

27.3%

DET By 8-14 points

21.1%

DAL By 1-7 points

20.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
118.95
DETROIT
115.34
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
DETROIT
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pistons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pistons (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 18, 2025 DET @ DAL 114 - 116
Nov 1, 2025 DAL @ DET 110 - 122
Mar 21, 2025 DET @ DAL 117 - 123
Jan 31, 2025 DAL @ DET 102 - 117
Apr 12, 2024 DET @ DAL 107 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +69.2% more
Detroit: 7.1 vs Dallas: 2.2
Steals (L5) +21.1% more
Detroit: 7.2 vs Dallas: 5.7
Rebounding (L5) +15.9% more
Detroit: 46.7 vs Dallas: 39.3
Assists (L5) +13.4% more
Detroit: 27.3 vs Dallas: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 119.0 117
DAL Score 115.3 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 37.6 35.3 / 35.5
Assists 23.7 / 27.3 25.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.2 / 7.1 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.0 / 50.2 52.5 / 46.9
Free Throw % 78.1 / 78.1 75.0 / 73.7
Rebounding 39.3 / 46.7 44.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.2 10.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 14.0 20.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
DET
DAL
DET
ML
62% 63-39
55% 64-53
54% 44-37
49% 47-49
ATS
67% 68-34
53% 60-54-3
54% 44-37
49% 47-49
TTL
59% 60-41-1
60% 70-46-1
100% 81-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Luka Doncic Opens Up About Heartbreaking Season Away From His Da…
sportingnews 0 minutes ago
Walt Frazier Dubs Anthony Davis 'Street Clothes' as Wizards Debu…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 2 hours, 54 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 8 hours, 46 minutes ago
Cal Bears' Injury Report: Eight Players Questionable for Virgini…
headtopics 21 hours, 17 minutes ago