Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Trail Blazers DEN @ POR

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

44-26  |  Road

109
FINAL
Fri, Mar 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

31-39  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
NUGGETS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Denver)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

67.3%

Trail Blazers Cover

32.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-7 points

27.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

22.3%

POR By 1-7 points

19.4%

POR By 8-14 points

8.7%

AI Model Projected Score
117.96
DENVER
113.48
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
121
DENVER
115
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim Nuggets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 6, 2026 POR @ DEN 132 - 137
Mar 22, 2026 POR @ DEN 112 - 128
Feb 20, 2026 DEN @ POR 157 - 103
Oct 31, 2025 DEN @ POR 107 - 109
Mar 21, 2025 DEN @ POR 109 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.4% more
Denver: 29.7 vs Portland: 23.6
Steals (L5) +14.1% more
Denver: 9.2 vs Portland: 7.9
Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Denver: 48.3% vs Portland: 42.5%
Rebounding (L5) +19.6% more
Portland: 54.4 vs Denver: 45.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 118.0 109
POR Score 113.5 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 35.8 40.0 / 34.6
Assists 23.6 / 29.7 30.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.5 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 48.3 54.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 73.6 80.0 / 85.7
Rebounding 54.4 / 45.5 38.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.9 / 9.2 12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 17.2 17.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DEN
POR
DEN
ML
53% 56-49
54% 57-48
55% 49-40
55% 47-39
ATS
62% 65-39-1
63% 65-38-2
55% 49-40
55% 47-39
TTL
56% 58-46-1
54% 56-48-1
100% 89-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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