DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
33-36 | Road
131
INDIANA
PACERSIND
38-29 | Home
135
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
PACERS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
DAL By 1-7 points
22.4%
DAL By 8-14 points
11.5%
IND By 1-7 points
27.1%
IND By 8-14 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
112.21
DALLAS
Indiana
114.66
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim
Mavericks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
DAL @ IND
134 - 130
Oct 29, 2025
IND @ DAL
105 - 107
Mar 19, 2025
DAL @ IND
131 - 135
Nov 4, 2024
IND @ DAL
134 - 127
Mar 5, 2024
IND @ DAL
137 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+52.0% more
Indiana: 8.4
vs
Dallas: 5.5
Blocks (L5)
+45.3% more
Indiana: 4.8
vs
Dallas: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+21.9% more
Indiana: 29.3
vs
Dallas: 24.0
Turnovers (L5)
+14.7% more
Indiana: 14.4
vs
Dallas: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
112.2
131
IND Score
114.7
135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 34.1
45.7 / 40.7
Assists
29.3 / 24.0
29.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.8 / 3.3
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 49.2
54.9 / 54.5
Free Throw %
79.6 / 79.6
78.4 / 75.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 38.4
38.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.4 / 5.5
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 12.6
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DAL
IND
DAL
ML
48%
47-50
62%
63-39
54%
45-38
54%
44-37
ATS
59%
57-40
67%
68-34
54%
45-38
54%
44-37
TTL
54%
52-45
59%
60-41-1
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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