HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
44-25 | Road
116
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
32-37 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
MAGIC
0%
ROCKETS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
HOU By 1-7 points
20.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
9.7%
ORL By 1-7 points
27.4%
ORL By 8-14 points
21.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
108.32
HOUSTON
Orlando
111.99
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Magic (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.7
D
Sim
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
HOU @ ORL
113 - 108
Nov 16, 2025
ORL @ HOU
113 - 117
Mar 19, 2025
HOU @ ORL
116 - 108
Mar 10, 2025
ORL @ HOU
84 - 97
Apr 9, 2024
ORL @ HOU
106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+37.0% more
Orlando: 9.2
vs
Houston: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Orlando: 81.3%
vs
Houston: 73.6%
Rebounding (L5)
+28.7% more
Houston: 55.5
vs
Orlando: 39.6
Assists (L5)
+27.5% more
Houston: 28.4
vs
Orlando: 20.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
108.3
116
ORL Score
112.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 38.5
25.7 / 31.4
Assists
20.6 / 28.4
23.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.7 / 5.1
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 47.3
44.6 / 46.9
Free Throw %
81.3 / 73.6
85.0 / 90.6
Rebounding
39.6 / 55.5
41.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.2 / 6.7
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.9
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
HOU
ORL
HOU
ML
61%
65-42
61%
69-44
56%
51-40
59%
51-35
ATS
64%
68-38-1
62%
70-43
56%
51-40
59%
51-35
TTL
57%
61-46
51%
58-55
100%
91-0
100%
86-0
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