DETROIT
PISTONSDET
38-31 | Road
116
MIAMI
HEATMIA
29-39 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
HEAT
0%
PISTONS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
DET By 1-7 points
24.2%
DET By 8-14 points
13.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
17.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
111.27
DETROIT
Miami
112.37
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Detroit
108
DETROIT
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.1
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
DET @ MIA
110 - 121
Jan 1, 2026
MIA @ DET
118 - 112
Nov 29, 2025
DET @ MIA
138 - 135
Mar 19, 2025
DET @ MIA
116 - 113
Dec 16, 2024
MIA @ DET
124 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+12.6% more
Miami: 16.4
vs
Detroit: 14.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Miami: 79.0%
vs
Detroit: 75.5%
Blocks (L5)
+20.6% more
Detroit: 5.6
vs
Miami: 4.5
Rebounding (L5)
+17.6% more
Detroit: 46.5
vs
Miami: 38.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
111.3
116
MIA Score
112.4
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 36.9
31.3 / 39.1
Assists
23.6 / 28.5
24.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.5 / 5.6
5.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 50.1
48.9 / 50.5
Free Throw %
79.0 / 75.5
83.3 / 83.3
Rebounding
38.3 / 46.5
37.0 / 47.0
Steals
8.6 / 8.8
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
16.4 / 14.6
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
48%
46-50
55%
64-53
59%
48-34
49%
47-49
ATS
51%
49-47
53%
60-54-3
59%
48-34
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
57-39
60%
70-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
96-0
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