Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bulls @ Suns CHI @ PHX

CHICAGO

BULLSCHI

29-39  |  Road

121
FINAL
Wed, Mar 19 • 10:00 PM ET
PHX Arena
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

32-37  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
BULLS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Phoenix)
BullsCHI (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

27.8%

Suns Cover

72.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

CHI By 1-7 points

17.1%

CHI By 8-14 points

7.0%

PHX By 1-7 points

26.9%

PHX By 8-14 points

24.1%

AI Model Projected Score
115.43
CHICAGO
121.32
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
118
CHICAGO
124
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.9
D
Sim Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 236.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 PHX @ CHI 120 - 110
Mar 5, 2026 CHI @ PHX 105 - 103
Mar 19, 2025 CHI @ PHX 121 - 127
Feb 22, 2025 PHX @ CHI 121 - 117
Jan 22, 2024 CHI @ PHX 113 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.5% more
Phoenix: 13.1 vs Chicago: 11.6
Assists (L5) +12.0% more
Phoenix: 30.2 vs Chicago: 27.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.8%
Phoenix: 42.4% vs Chicago: 32.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
Phoenix: 87.7% vs Chicago: 83.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 115.4 121
PHX Score 121.3 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.4 / 32.6 37.5 / 39.5
Assists 30.2 / 27.0 34.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.3 6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 45.6 49.0 / 54.4
Free Throw % 87.7 / 83.5 90.0 / 66.7
Rebounding 46.8 / 46.3 46.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.2 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.6 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0 (37.8%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0 (47.6%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7% Total +/-: +0.5
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
CHI
PHX
CHI
ML
57% 60-45
56% 54-42
51% 45-43
57% 46-35
ATS
58% 59-43-3
65% 62-33-1
51% 45-43
57% 46-35
TTL
59% 61-42-2
58% 56-40
100% 88-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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