MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
43-26 | Road
99
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
30-39 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Portland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
MEM By 1-7 points
23.6%
MEM By 8-14 points
12.8%
POR By 1-7 points
26.6%
POR By 8-14 points
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
117.32
MEMPHIS
Portland
118.88
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Portland
112
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim
Grizzlies (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 236.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
POR @ MEM
122 - 114
Feb 7, 2026
MEM @ POR
115 - 122
Feb 6, 2026
MEM @ POR
115 - 135
Dec 7, 2025
POR @ MEM
96 - 119
Mar 19, 2025
MEM @ POR
99 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+13.7% more
Portland: 16.3
vs
Memphis: 14.3
Steals (L5)
+13.4% more
Portland: 10.3
vs
Memphis: 9.1
Blocks (L5)
+21.2% more
Memphis: 6.0
vs
Portland: 4.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.4%
Memphis: 89.4%
vs
Portland: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
117.3
99
POR Score
118.9
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 38.6
39.1 / 26.7
Assists
22.9 / 26.8
25.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.7 / 6.0
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 49.4
41.7 / 40.2
Free Throw %
74.0 / 89.4
81.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
49.0 / 47.4
65.0 / 40.0
Steals
10.3 / 9.1
3.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.3 / 14.3
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
MEM
POR
MEM
ML
53%
56-49
57%
59-44
55%
49-40
50%
41-41
ATS
62%
65-39-1
63%
65-38
55%
49-40
50%
41-41
TTL
56%
58-46-1
70%
71-31-1
100%
89-0
100%
82-0
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