DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
44-25 | Road
108
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
42-25 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
LAKERS
0%
NUGGETS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)
DEN By 1-7 points
24.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
13.6%
LAL By 1-7 points
26.2%
LAL By 8-14 points
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
115.85
DENVER
Los Angeles
116.9
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Denver
118
DENVER
Los Angeles
112
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.1
D
Sim
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
DEN @ LAL
125 - 127
Mar 5, 2026
LAL @ DEN
113 - 120
Jan 20, 2026
LAL @ DEN
115 - 107
Mar 19, 2025
DEN @ LAL
108 - 120
Mar 14, 2025
LAL @ DEN
126 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.9% more
Denver: 6.2
vs
Los Angeles: 3.9
Turnovers (L5)
+33.2% more
Denver: 16.4
vs
Los Angeles: 10.9
Assists (L5)
+13.3% more
Denver: 32.1
vs
Los Angeles: 27.8
Steals (L5)
+8.8% more
Denver: 9.8
vs
Los Angeles: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
115.9
108
LAL Score
116.9
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 37.1
42.1 / 33.3
Assists
27.8 / 32.1
25.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.9 / 6.2
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 48.8
50.6 / 47.1
Free Throw %
76.1 / 79.5
71.4 / 61.9
Rebounding
42.6 / 45.7
38.0 / 45.0
Steals
8.9 / 9.8
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 16.4
14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
DEN
LAL
DEN
ML
61%
68-43
54%
57-48
54%
49-42
55%
47-39
ATS
61%
67-43-1
63%
65-38-2
54%
49-42
55%
47-39
TTL
61%
66-43-2
54%
56-48-1
100%
91-0
100%
86-0
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