ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
32-36 | Road
134
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
17-50 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
HORNETS
100%
HAWKS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
27.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
20.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
21.4%
CHA By 8-14 points
10.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
114.05
ATLANTA
Charlotte
110.92
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
ATL @ CHA
107 - 110
Feb 7, 2026
CHA @ ATL
126 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
126 - 133
Nov 23, 2025
CHA @ ATL
110 - 113
Mar 18, 2025
ATL @ CHA
134 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+40.3% more
Atlanta: 7.8
vs
Charlotte: 4.7
Steals (L5)
+33.2% more
Atlanta: 9.8
vs
Charlotte: 6.6
Assists (L5)
+10.1% more
Charlotte: 30.2
vs
Atlanta: 27.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Charlotte: 87.7%
vs
Atlanta: 83.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
114.1
134
CHA Score
110.9
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 32.6
33.3 / 48.9
Assists
30.2 / 27.5
25.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.7 / 7.8
8.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 46.2
45.2 / 53.8
Free Throw %
87.7 / 83.0
76.2 / 80.0
Rebounding
42.3 / 42.3
39.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.6 / 9.8
7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 15.0
17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
ATL
CHA
ATL
ML
61%
60-39
50%
52-52
48%
40-44
55%
48-40
ATS
60%
59-40
53%
55-48-1
48%
40-44
55%
48-40
TTL
58%
57-42
53%
55-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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