NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
30-28-8 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
28-31-10 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 2.00 | 0.905 | -- |
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
--
0.905
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
ISLANDERS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
NYI By 1 goal
17.0%
NYI By 2-3 goals
17.6%
PIT By 1 goal
17.9%
PIT By 2-3 goals
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.56
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
2.66
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PIT @ NYI
8 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
PIT @ NYI
4 - 5
Oct 9, 2025
NYI @ PIT
3 - 4
Mar 18, 2025
NYI @ PIT
4 - 2
Dec 29, 2024
NYI @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+31.4% more
Pittsburgh: 4.8
vs
New York: 3.7
Power Play % (L5)
+15.7%
Pittsburgh: 21.8%
vs
New York: 6.0%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.6% more
Pittsburgh: 18.3
vs
New York: 16.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+24.2% more
New York: 30.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 23.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
2.6
4
PIT Score
2.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.3 / 16.1
15.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
54.4 / 54.5
54.5 / 45.5
Hits
21.0 / 22.1
18.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
2175.0 / 602.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.2 / 30.7
21.0 / 38.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 3.7
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYI
PIT
NYI
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
2-0-1
50%
2-2
100%
2-0-1
Contextual Game News
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