Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Kings MEM @ SAC

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

43-25  |  Road

122
FINAL
Mon, Mar 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

33-33  |  Home

132
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Sacramento)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

42.9%

Kings Cover

57.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

MEM By 1-7 points

23.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

12.5%

SAC By 1-7 points

26.7%

SAC By 8-14 points

18.2%

AI Model Projected Score
115.83
MEMPHIS
117.63
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
118
MEMPHIS
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 233.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 SAC @ MEM 123 - 114
Feb 4, 2026 MEM @ SAC 129 - 125
Nov 30, 2025 MEM @ SAC 115 - 107
Nov 20, 2025 SAC @ MEM 96 - 137
Mar 17, 2025 MEM @ SAC 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.3% more
Sacramento: 15.3 vs Memphis: 12.4
Blocks (L5) +48.2% more
Memphis: 5.5 vs Sacramento: 2.8
Steals (L5) +28.2% more
Memphis: 9.7 vs Sacramento: 6.9
Rebounding (L5) +16.2% more
Memphis: 47.0 vs Sacramento: 39.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 115.8 122
SAC Score 117.6 132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 36.2 48.8 / 43.3
Assists 24.8 / 28.2 35.0 / 24.0
Blocks 2.8 / 5.5 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 49.7 52.3 / 48.9
Free Throw % 82.4 / 84.1 66.7 / 100.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 47.0 38.0 / 48.0
Steals 6.9 / 9.7 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 12.4 14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MEM
SAC
MEM
ML
55% 55-45
57% 59-44
61% 50-32
50% 41-41
ATS
54% 52-45-3
63% 65-38
61% 50-32
50% 41-41
TTL
58% 57-42-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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